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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportswin 2:1
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Wildcard Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

B8 Esports

Snapfire
Snapfire
Alexxo · 14 games
43%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Dendi · 9 games
33%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Davai · 6 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
MoOz · 6 games
17%
Silencer
Silencer
Sammyboy · 6 games
17%
Lina
Linaoften banned
StoneBank · 5 games
80%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
YamSun · 5 games
40%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
YamSun · 5 games
60%

Wildcard Gaming

Rubick
Rubick
Alexxo · 10 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
FrancisLee · 10 games
70%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Babitich · 8 games
63%
Tusk
Tusk
Sunlight · 7 games
29%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Boris · 6 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
FrancisLee · 6 games
83%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Babitich · 5 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Babitich · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
764 picks · 496 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
544 picks · 392 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
539 picks · 445 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
532 picks · 581 bans
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
413 picks · 627 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
393 picks · 275 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
380 picks · 676 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
358 picks · 770 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 35%
Hero pool strength55% Wildcard Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total75% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:41
B8 Esports 37%Wildcard Gaming 63%
The model gave 63% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 39:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerStoneBank
51% · 90 games49% · 68 games
BloodseekerYawaR
Bloodseeker
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFunn1k
55% · 211 games42% · 231 game
Death ProphetLil_Nick
Death Prophet
Primal Beast
Primal BeastDendi
55% · 167 games47% · 231 game
ClockwerkMSS
Clockwerk
Pugna
PugnaCTOMAHEH1
50% · 91 game49% · 98 games
DisruptorSammyboy
Disruptor
Riki
RikiLodine
56% · 69 games
Game 2prediction missed34:5
B8 Esports 35%Wildcard Gaming 65%
The model gave 65% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 30:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistStoneBank
46% · 45 games55% · 164 games
Monkey KingYawaR
Monkey King
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritDendi
60% · 114 games47% · 129 games
TimbersawLil_Nick
Timbersaw
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerFunn1k
44% · 172 games50% · 234 games
SnapfireMSS
Snapfire
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageCTOMAHEH1
45% · 121 game43% · 39 games
LichSammyboy
Lich
Io
IoLodine
54% · 114 games
Game 3prediction missed41:20
B8 Esports 36%Wildcard Gaming 64%
The model gave 64% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 50:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreStoneBank
50% · 64 games52% · 301 game
Nature's ProphetLil_Nick
Nature's Prophet
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritDendi
47% · 229 games62% · 86 games
LifestealerYawaR
Lifestealer
Alchemist
AlchemistFunn1k
39% · 37 games37% · 32 games
Ancient ApparitionSammyboy
Ancient Apparition
Mirana
MiranaCTOMAHEH1
55% · 184 games50% · 413 games
TuskMSS
Tusk
Rubick
RubickLodine
47% · 318 games
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 75%
Series resultB8 Esports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3