Snow Sweet Snow #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportsloss 0:2series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Winstrike Teamwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
B8 Esports
Shadow Shaman
[T]SA · 10 games
Puckoften banned
Dendi · 9 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
RdO · 8 games
Rubick
[T]SA · 7 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Dendi · 6 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
RdO · 6 games
Enchantressoften banned
Duster · 5 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Dendi · 5 games
Winstrike Team
Puckoften banned
re1bl · 11 games
Shadow Shamansignature
yamich · 11 games
Phoenixoften banned
yamich · 9 games
Monkey Kingsignature
dyrachyo · 8 games
Void Spiritsignature
re1bl · 8 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
dyrachyo · 8 games
Oracleoften banned
Panto · 7 games
Disruptor
Panto · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
324 picks · 665 bans
Void Spirit
311 picks · 378 bans
Mars
261 picks · 457 bans
Earth Spirit
243 picks · 202 bans
Rubick
216 picks · 113 bans
Death Prophet
210 picks · 311 bans
Nyx Assassin
209 picks · 627 bans
Phoenix
209 picks · 239 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 60%
Hero pool strength59% Winstrike Team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total77% Winstrike Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct53:48
B8 Esports 33%Winstrike Team 67%
The model gave 67% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 56:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckDendi
Kunkkare1bl
Ember SpiritRdO
Abaddondyrachyo
Earthshaker[T]SA
Timbersawchshrct
EnigmaDuster
DisruptorPanto
Game 2prediction correct23:46
B8 Esports 33%Winstrike Team 67%
The model gave 67% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 43:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistRdO
Wraith Kingdyrachyo
BatriderDendi
Dragon Knightchshrct
Phoenix[T]SA
Storm Spiritre1bl
PuckDuster
ChenPanto
Model check result
Model favoriteWinstrike Team · 77%
Series resultWinstrike Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2