?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportswin 2:1
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Winstrike Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

B8 Esports

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
[T]SA · 24 games
63%
Lina
Linasignature
[T]SA · 21 game
67%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Dendi · 20 games
55%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Watson · 17 games
53%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Limitless · 13 games
38%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Yuma · 12 games
75%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
[T]SA · 12 games
42%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Watson · 10 games
50%

Winstrike Team

Lina
Linaoften banned
re1bl · 14 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Panto · 13 games
38%
Lion
Lion
yamich · 13 games
38%
Mars
Marssignature
chshrct · 13 games
62%
Phoenix
Phoenix
yamich · 12 games
33%
Axe
Axeoften banned
chshrct · 11 games
18%
Puck
Puckoften banned
mellojul · 11 games
55%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 11 games
82%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
331 picks · 177 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
283 picks · 100 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
271 picks · 413 bans
49%
Lina
Lina
269 picks · 534 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
264 picks · 366 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
238 picks · 336 bans
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
237 picks · 247 bans
59%
Abaddon
Abaddon
215 picks · 239 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% B8 Esports
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total53% Winstrike Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:21
B8 Esports 48%Winstrike Team 52%
The model gave 52% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 38:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Venomancer
VenomancerLimitless
43% · 29 games47% · 74 games
Svendyrachyo
Sven
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinDendi
52% · 92 games52% · 115 games
Invokermellojul
Invoker
Tiny
TinyWatson
56% · 136 games35% · 32 games
Weaveryamich
Weaver
Lina
Lina[T]SA
50% · 178 games50% · 174 games
Marschshrct
Mars
56% · 40 games
BanePanto
Bane
Game 2prediction correct28:37
B8 Esports 47%Winstrike Team 53%
The model gave 53% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 44:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperWatson
37% · 8 games61% · 101 game
Medusadyrachyo
Medusa
Tiny
TinyDendi
57% · 96 games44% · 22 games
Underlordchshrct
Underlord
Axe
AxeLimitless
37% · 42 games51% · 68 games
Ember Spiritmellojul
Ember Spirit
Lina
Lina[T]SA
52% · 82 games34% · 26 games
Weaveryamich
Weaver
48% · 11 games
Ogre MagiPanto
Ogre Magi
Game 3prediction missed31:17
B8 Esports 49%Winstrike Team 51%
The model gave 51% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 35:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaDendi
51% · 106 games54% · 58 games
Batridermellojul
Batrider
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerWatson
41% · 55 games49% · 72 games
Tinydyrachyo
Tiny
Dazzle
DazzleLimitless
45% · 7 games47% · 10 games
Venomancerchshrct
Venomancer
Earthshaker
Earthshaker[T]SA
50% · 55 games57% · 23 games
DisruptorPanto
Disruptor
54% · 60 games
Monkey Kingyamich
Monkey King
Model check result
Model favoriteWinstrike Team · 53%
Series resultB8 Esports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3