ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionBBadRexonwin 2:0
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The Covenantloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BadRexon
No games played over 6 months.
The Covenant
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
482 picks · 400 bans
Clockwerk
449 picks · 560 bans
Batrider
411 picks · 514 bans
Lion
405 picks · 216 bans
Gyrocopter
402 picks · 660 bans
Phoenix
393 picks · 437 bans
Pangolier
367 picks · 589 bans
Beastmaster
356 picks · 909 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 47%
Hero pool strength50% BadRexon
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total61% BadRexon
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:17
BadRexon 61%The Covenant 39%
The model gave 61% on BadRexon — the game was taken by BadRexon in 38:12.
Game 2prediction correct31:18
BadRexon 61%The Covenant 39%
The model gave 61% on BadRexon — the game was taken by BadRexon in 32:14.
Model check result
Model favoriteBadRexon · 61%
Series resultBadRexon 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2