Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionBABads and Spagloss 0:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PPatriotswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Bads and Spag
No games played over 6 months.
Patriots
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
454 picks · 1010 bans
Void Spirit
425 picks · 611 bans
Mars
371 picks · 643 bans
Death Prophet
356 picks · 666 bans
Earth Spirit
334 picks · 290 bans
Phoenix
280 picks · 380 bans
Tusk
261 picks · 176 bans
Rubick
260 picks · 169 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Bads and Spag
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Bads and Spag
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteBads and Spag · 50%
Series resultPatriots 0:2
Series predictionmissed