DreamLeague Season 28. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionBBAIYAWAKloss 1:2
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Carstensz Esportswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BAIYAWAK
Dragon Knightoften banned
Akashi · 2 games
Snapfire
Jing · 2 games
Abaddonoften banned
Akashi · 1 game
Batrideroften banned
Jing · 1 game
Muerta
Jing · 1 game
Naga Sirenoften banned
Akashi · 1 game
Terrorbladeoften banned
Akashi · 1 game
Tusk
Jing · 1 game
Carstensz Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
569 picks · 702 bans
Tusk
512 picks · 351 bans
Dragon Knight
486 picks · 662 bans
Centaur Warrunner
449 picks · 549 bans
Snapfire
419 picks · 142 bans
Hoodwink
402 picks · 191 bans
Mars
380 picks · 521 bans
Gyrocopter
373 picks · 518 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% Carstensz Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% BAIYAWAK
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:15
BAIYAWAK 61%Carstensz Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on BAIYAWAK — the game was taken by BAIYAWAK in 34:06.
Game 2prediction missed14:20
BAIYAWAK 61%Carstensz Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on BAIYAWAK — the game was taken by Carstensz Esports in 41:15.
Game 3prediction missed
BAIYAWAK 61%Carstensz Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on BAIYAWAK — the game was taken by Carstensz Esports.
Model check result
Model favoriteBAIYAWAK · 61%
Series resultCarstensz Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3