Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Balrogswin 2:0series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Gorillaz-Prideloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Balrogs
No games played over 6 months.
Gorillaz-Pride
Banesignature
Yadomi · 6 games
Pucksignature
TaO · 6 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Genek · 5 games
Kunkkaoften banned
NaoG · 5 games
Leshracoften banned
TaO · 5 games
Tiny
Zxca · 5 games
Hoodwink
Zxca · 4 games
Invokeroften banned
TaO · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
504 picks · 436 bans
Mars
475 picks · 694 bans
Bane
437 picks · 296 bans
Dragon Knight
435 picks · 537 bans
Pangolier
375 picks · 602 bans
Storm Spirit
375 picks · 600 bans
Sand King
348 picks · 512 bans
Grimstroke
340 picks · 314 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)15% vs 46%
Hero pool strength52% Gorillaz-Pride
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total61% Gorillaz-Pride
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:44
Balrogs 39%Gorillaz-Pride 61%
The model gave 61% on Gorillaz-Pride — the game was taken by Gorillaz-Pride in 34:50.
Game 2prediction correct14:34
Balrogs 39%Gorillaz-Pride 61%
The model gave 61% on Gorillaz-Pride — the game was taken by Gorillaz-Pride in 31:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteGorillaz-Pride · 61%
Series resultBalrogs 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2