Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO1
result vs prediction
Balrogswin 1:0series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Gorillaz-Prideloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Balrogs
No games played over 6 months.
Gorillaz-Pride
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Genek · 6 games
Pucksignature
TaO · 6 games
Tiny
Zxca · 6 games
Void Spiritoften banned
TaO · 6 games
Leshracoften banned
TaO · 5 games
Bane
Yadomi · 4 games
Clockwerk
JimmyCoff666 · 4 games
Invokeroften banned
TaO · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
590 picks · 450 bans
Mars
410 picks · 630 bans
Puck
406 picks · 860 bans
Dragon Knight
391 picks · 497 bans
Bane
363 picks · 243 bans
Snapfire
339 picks · 170 bans
Ember Spirit
325 picks · 606 bans
Pangolier
302 picks · 525 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 38%
Hero pool strength53% Balrogs
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total51% Gorillaz-Pride
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:20
Balrogs 49%Gorillaz-Pride 51%
The model gave 51% on Gorillaz-Pride — the game was taken by Gorillaz-Pride in 47:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteGorillaz-Pride · 51%
Series resultBalrogs 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 1