Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Balrogsloss 0:2series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Infamouswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Balrogs
No games played over 6 months.
Infamous
Miranasignature
Michael · 7 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Parker · 6 games
Marssignature
Mariano · 6 games
Bane
Prada · 5 games
Ogre Magi
Prada · 5 games
Snapfire
Pamplona · 5 games
Tinyoften banned
Rises · 5 games
Tusk
Pamplona · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
476 picks · 279 bans
Mars
397 picks · 543 bans
Queen of Pain
367 picks · 512 bans
Weaver
360 picks · 479 bans
Death Prophet
312 picks · 494 bans
Kunkka
291 picks · 521 bans
Ember Spirit
273 picks · 351 bans
Grimstroke
270 picks · 190 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 52%
Hero pool strength60% Infamous
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Infamous
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:9
Balrogs 31%Infamous 69%
The model gave 69% on Infamous — the game was taken by Infamous in 28:03.
Game 2prediction correct40:16
Balrogs 31%Infamous 69%
The model gave 69% on Infamous — the game was taken by Infamous in 33:13.
Model check result
Model favoriteInfamous · 69%
Series resultInfamous 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2