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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Balrogsloss 1:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Lavawin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Balrogs

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 12 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Demon · 9 games
78%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
DM · 7 games
43%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
ShakaLord · 6 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
ShakaLord · 6 games
83%
Rubick
Rubick
Demon · 6 games
17%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
DM · 6 games
50%
Wraith King
Wraith King
DM · 6 games
50%

Lava

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
JimmyCoff666 · 8 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
drakeel · 6 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
JimmyCoff666 · 5 games
20%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 5 games
60%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
payk · 5 games
80%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
Hermit · 4 games
75%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
payk · 4 games
75%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
payk · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
525 picks · 559 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
452 picks · 228 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
413 picks · 728 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
368 picks · 642 bans
48%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
352 picks · 351 bans
47%
Morphling
Morphling
341 picks · 711 bans
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
330 picks · 797 bans
49%
Undying
Undying
326 picks · 520 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 55%
Hero pool strength55% Lava
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total63% Lava
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:10
Balrogs 42%Lava 58%
The model gave 58% on Lava — the game was taken by Balrogs in 30:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterDM
54% · 11 games46% · 37 games
Medusapayk
Medusa
Tiny
TinyÑengoflow KELOKE
62% · 67 games40% · 72 games
DawnbreakerJimmyCoff666
Dawnbreaker
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionDemon
64% · 6 games
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorAccel
52% · 25 games
Game 2prediction correct10:42
Balrogs 42%Lava 58%
The model gave 58% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava in 34:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenDM
52% · 19 games38% · 10 games
Phantom Assassinpayk
Phantom Assassin
Puck
PuckÑengoflow KELOKE
49% · 72 games53% · 116 games
BatriderJimmyCoff666
Batrider
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionDemon
52% · 11 games
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritAccel
46% · 24 games
Game 3prediction correct13:24
Balrogs 42%Lava 58%
The model gave 58% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava in 36:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeDM
56% · 76 games41% · 40 games
Phantom Assassinpayk
Phantom Assassin
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritÑengoflow KELOKE
57% · 136 games47% · 291 game
UndyingJimmyCoff666
Undying
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionDemon
54% · 14 games
Batrider
BatriderAccel
54% · 105 games
Model check result
Model favoriteLava · 63%
Series resultLava 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3