Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Balrogsloss 0:2series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Ram Squadwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Balrogs
Rubick
Demon · 17 games
Tusk
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 13 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 12 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 12 games
Jakirosignature
ShakaLord · 11 games
Silenceroften banned
ShakaLord · 10 games
Beastmastersignature
drakesh1t · 8 games
Clockwerksignature
Demon · 8 games
Ram Squad
Clinkzoften banned
w33 · 4 games
Spirit Breaker
BliNcc · 4 games
Doomoften banned
BliNcc · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
canceL^^ · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
kAAN · 2 games
Puckoften banned
canceL^^ · 2 games
Techies
w33 · 2 games
Undyingoften banned
Flash · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
693 picks · 596 bans
Disruptor
553 picks · 487 bans
Beastmaster
443 picks · 1089 bans
Doom
441 picks · 779 bans
Ember Spirit
403 picks · 1017 bans
Mirana
379 picks · 204 bans
Pangolier
376 picks · 823 bans
Enchantress
372 picks · 544 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 55%
Hero pool strength52% Balrogs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Balrogs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:38
Balrogs 58%Ram Squad 42%
The model gave 58% on Balrogs — the game was taken by Ram Squad in 36:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BatriderAlone
MedusakAAN
WindrangerDM
MagnusArisE
Keeper of the LightDemon
PangoliercanceL^^
DisruptorShakaLord
VenomancerFlash
Game 2prediction missed38:44
Balrogs 63%Ram Squad 37%
The model gave 63% on Balrogs — the game was taken by Ram Squad in 39:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistAlone
MorphlingkAAN
Monkey KingDM
PuckcanceL^^
ClockwerkDemon
BeastmasterArisE
EnchantressShakaLord
Spirit BreakerFlash
Model check result
Model favoriteBalrogs · 73%
Series resultRam Squad 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2