Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO1
result vs prediction
Balrogsloss 0:1series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:1
South Teamwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Balrogs
No games played over 6 months.
South Team
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
589 picks · 450 bans
Mars
410 picks · 630 bans
Puck
405 picks · 860 bans
Dragon Knight
391 picks · 497 bans
Bane
363 picks · 243 bans
Snapfire
339 picks · 169 bans
Ember Spirit
325 picks · 606 bans
Pangolier
302 picks · 525 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 53%
Hero pool strength50% Balrogs
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% South Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:30
Balrogs 49%South Team 51%
The model gave 51% on South Team — the game was taken by South Team in 41:01.
Model check result
Model favoriteSouth Team · 51%
Series resultSouth Team 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1