Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Balrogswin 2:0series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Vicious Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Balrogs
No games played over 6 months.
Vicious Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tidehunter
267 picks · 386 bans
Mars
265 picks · 383 bans
Monkey King
258 picks · 613 bans
Bane
238 picks · 172 bans
Lina
218 picks · 463 bans
Lion
213 picks · 101 bans
Void Spirit
212 picks · 260 bans
Weaver
209 picks · 387 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Balrogs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Vicious Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:35
Balrogs 31%Vicious Gaming 69%
The model gave 69% on Vicious Gaming — the game was taken by Vicious Gaming in 38:40.
Game 2prediction correct26:8
Balrogs 31%Vicious Gaming 69%
The model gave 69% on Vicious Gaming — the game was taken by Vicious Gaming in 23:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteVicious Gaming · 69%
Series resultBalrogs 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2