Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Balrogswin 2:1series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Vicious Gamingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Balrogs
No games played over 6 months.
Vicious Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
269 picks · 402 bans
Tidehunter
267 picks · 398 bans
Monkey King
261 picks · 637 bans
Bane
242 picks · 180 bans
Lina
221 picks · 480 bans
Weaver
220 picks · 413 bans
Lion
214 picks · 108 bans
Void Spirit
209 picks · 268 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% Balrogs
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total59% Vicious Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Balrogs 41%Vicious Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on Vicious Gaming — the game was taken by Balrogs.
Game 2prediction correct
Balrogs 41%Vicious Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on Vicious Gaming — the game was taken by Vicious Gaming.
Game 3prediction missed
Balrogs 41%Vicious Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on Vicious Gaming — the game was taken by Balrogs.
Model check result
Model favoriteVicious Gaming · 59%
Series resultBalrogs 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3