?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Balrogswin 2:1
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
x5 Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Balrogs

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Demon · 14 games
71%
Tusk
Tusk
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 11 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
drakesh1t · 8 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 8 games
75%
Silencer
Silencersignature
ShakaLord · 8 games
63%
Jakiro
Jakiro
ShakaLord · 7 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Demon · 7 games
29%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 6 games
83%

x5 Gaming

Mirana
Mirana
Wij · 5 games
60%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Benny · 4 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantress
FCR · 3 games
33%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
Wij · 3 games
33%
Clinkz
Clinkz
Benny · 2 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Wij · 2 games
100%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
FCR · 2 games
100%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
FCR · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
944 picks · 639 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
655 picks · 456 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
568 picks · 901 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
545 picks · 441 bans
48%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
536 picks · 534 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
508 picks · 337 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
483 picks · 1064 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
459 picks · 339 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 69%
Hero pool strength53% Balrogs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% x5 Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:32
Balrogs 48%x5 Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on x5 Gaming — the game was taken by x5 Gaming in 52:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckÑengoflow KELOKE
35% · 126 games59% · 21 game
Anti-MageBenny
Anti-Mage
Lone Druid
Lone DruidDM
58% · 25 games49% · 253 games
Death ProphetFCR
Death Prophet
Primal Beast
Primal BeastDemon
52% · 124 games56% · 164 games
DisruptorWij
Disruptor
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorShakaLord
48% · 163 games
Game 2prediction correct50:20
Balrogs 53%x5 Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Balrogs — the game was taken by Balrogs in 42:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinDM
52% · 78 games47% · 135 games
TerrorbladeBenny
Terrorblade
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritÑengoflow KELOKE
56% · 110 games48% · 154 games
Keeper of the LightFCR
Keeper of the Light
Clockwerk
ClockwerkDemon
49% · 106 games49% · 35 games
Ogre MagiWij
Ogre Magi
Jakiro
JakiroShakaLord
50% · 30 games
Game 3prediction missed36:33
Balrogs 48%x5 Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on x5 Gaming — the game was taken by Balrogs in 1:09:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonDM
32% · 29 games50% · 91 game
Naga SirenBenny
Naga Siren
Pangolier
PangolierÑengoflow KELOKE
49% · 190 games56% · 185 games
EnchantressFCR
Enchantress
Clockwerk
ClockwerkDemon
51% · 231 game59% · 222 games
Treant ProtectorWij
Treant Protector
Jakiro
JakiroShakaLord
42% · 48 games
Model check result
Model favoritex5 Gaming · 51%
Series resultBalrogs 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3