ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Bammysoywin 2:0series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ppomoikaloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Bammysoy
Nature's Prophetoften banned
BliNcc · 4 games
Tusk
Husky · 3 games
Linaoften banned
RRL · 2 games
Magnus
Moo · 2 games
Muertaoften banned
Sammyboy · 2 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Arms · 2 games
Void Spirit
RRL · 2 games
Weaveroften banned
BliNcc · 2 games
pomoika
Dark Willow
FrancisLee · 2 games
Lifestealeroften banned
Kom4rt · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
smN · 2 games
Pugnaoften banned
smN · 2 games
Elder Titan
smN · 1 game
Enigma
Fayde · 1 game
Faceless Voidoften banned
Kom4rt · 1 game
Magnus
Fayde · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
234 picks · 278 bans
Dark Willow
232 picks · 109 bans
Vengeful Spirit
225 picks · 271 bans
Pangolier
199 picks · 416 bans
Treant Protector
199 picks · 427 bans
Phoenix
196 picks · 263 bans
Earth Spirit
177 picks · 277 bans
Earthshaker
175 picks · 175 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% pomoika
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Bammysoy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:11
Bammysoy 55%pomoika 45%
The model gave 55% on Bammysoy — the game was taken by Bammysoy in 36:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone DruidSammyboy
SpectreKom4rt
DawnbreakerMo13ei
BrewmasterFayde
TidehunterMoo
GrimstrokeFrancisLee
Nature's ProphetBliNcc
Treant ProtectorsmN
TuskHusky
Game 2prediction correct44:15
Bammysoy 54%pomoika 46%
The model gave 54% on Bammysoy — the game was taken by Bammysoy in 33:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaSammyboy
LifestealerKom4rt
BristlebackMoo
Centaur WarrunnerFayde
ZeusMo13ei
Ancient ApparitionsmN
PhoenixBliNcc
Dark WillowFrancisLee
TuskHusky
Model check result
Model favoriteBammysoy · 63%
Series resultBammysoy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2