ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Bammysoywin 2:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TRTeam Rocketloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Bammysoy
Templar Assassinoften banned
Arms · 2 games
Void Spirit
RRL · 2 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Arms · 1 game
Dark Willow
Sanctified · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
RRL · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
Arms · 1 game
Linaoften banned
RRL · 1 game
Muertaoften banned
Sanctified · 1 game
Team Rocket
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Moo · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Moo · 1 game
Linaoften banned
Mo13ei · 1 game
Lone Druidoften banned
Sammyboy · 1 game
Marci
Husky · 1 game
Muertaoften banned
BliNcc · 1 game
Spectreoften banned
Sammyboy · 1 game
Treant Protectoroften banned
Husky · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
223 picks · 272 bans
Dark Willow
203 picks · 90 bans
Grimstroke
202 picks · 232 bans
Pangolier
185 picks · 399 bans
Phoenix
174 picks · 232 bans
Sven
170 picks · 250 bans
Earthshaker
169 picks · 171 bans
Treant Protector
166 picks · 377 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 57%
Hero pool strength60% Team Rocket
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total68% Bammysoy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct57:38
Bammysoy 59%Team Rocket 41%
The model gave 59% on Bammysoy — the game was taken by Bammysoy in 55:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverSammyboy
MuertaArms
Nature's ProphetBliNcc
Earth SpiritRRL
NecrophosMo13ei
Centaur WarrunnerMoo
TuskHusky
Game 2prediction correct43:8
Bammysoy 63%Team Rocket 37%
The model gave 63% on Bammysoy — the game was taken by Bammysoy in 25:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetMo13ei
AlchemistArms
Wraith KingSammyboy
ZeusRRL
MagnusMoo
WeaverBliNcc
GrimstrokeHusky
Model check result
Model favoriteBammysoy · 68%
Series resultBammysoy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2