ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Ban9PivoSamogonloss 1:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HULIGANIwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ban9PivoSamogon
No games played over 6 months.
HULIGANI
Batrideroften banned
queezy · 26 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Panto · 21 game
Pucksignature
Mirage · 20 games
Enchantresssignature
Panto · 18 games
Morphlingoften banned
v1olent- · 17 games
Snapfire
OneJey · 16 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Mirage · 15 games
Chensignature
Panto · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
475 picks · 392 bans
Clockwerk
439 picks · 549 bans
Batrider
397 picks · 503 bans
Lion
392 picks · 208 bans
Gyrocopter
391 picks · 636 bans
Phoenix
382 picks · 429 bans
Pangolier
365 picks · 579 bans
Beastmaster
347 picks · 889 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 38%
Hero pool strength54% HULIGANI
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% Ban9PivoSamogon
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:34
Ban9PivoSamogon 55%HULIGANI 45%
The model gave 55% on Ban9PivoSamogon — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 41:40.
Game 2prediction missed6:31
Ban9PivoSamogon 55%HULIGANI 45%
The model gave 55% on Ban9PivoSamogon — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 30:34.
Game 3prediction missed6:17
Ban9PivoSamogon 55%HULIGANI 45%
The model gave 55% on Ban9PivoSamogon — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 29:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteBan9PivoSamogon · 55%
Series resultHULIGANI 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3