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PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Ban9PivoSamogonwin 2:0
series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Virtus.proloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ban9PivoSamogon

No games played over 6 months.

Virtus.pro

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Antares · 13 games
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Kiritych · 13 games
46%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Rein · 11 games
64%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Noticed · 10 games
80%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Antares · 9 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 9 games
89%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Squad1x · 8 games
25%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Noticed · 7 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
449 picks · 367 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
421 picks · 549 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
369 picks · 473 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
366 picks · 191 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
360 picks · 569 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
354 picks · 587 bans
45%
Phoenix
Phoenix
352 picks · 390 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
344 picks · 371 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 65%
Hero pool strength56% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:41
Ban9PivoSamogon 20%Virtus.pro 80%
The model gave 80% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 39:16.
Game 2prediction correct41:12
Ban9PivoSamogon 20%Virtus.pro 80%
The model gave 80% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 34:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 80%
Series resultBan9PivoSamogon 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2