ESL One Raleigh 2025. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Ban9PivoSamogonwin 2:1series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Y5 Esportsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ban9PivoSamogon
No games played over 6 months.
Y5 Esports
Beastmasteroften banned
Dominic · 2 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Dominic · 1 game
Tidehunteroften banned
Dominic · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
454 picks · 371 bans
Clockwerk
422 picks · 538 bans
Batrider
375 picks · 476 bans
Lion
370 picks · 194 bans
Gyrocopter
360 picks · 583 bans
Phoenix
359 picks · 396 bans
Pangolier
355 picks · 584 bans
Beastmaster
339 picks · 849 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% Y5 Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Ban9PivoSamogon
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:44
Ban9PivoSamogon 79%Y5 Esports 21%
The model gave 79% on Ban9PivoSamogon — the game was taken by Y5 Esports in 44:45.
Game 2prediction missed22:43
Ban9PivoSamogon 79%Y5 Esports 21%
The model gave 79% on Ban9PivoSamogon — the game was taken by Y5 Esports in 28:55.
Game 3prediction missed46:21
Ban9PivoSamogon 79%Y5 Esports 21%
The model gave 79% on Ban9PivoSamogon — the game was taken by Y5 Esports in 28:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteBan9PivoSamogon · 79%
Series resultBan9PivoSamogon 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3