Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
BAZA Esportsloss 0:2series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Alliancewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BAZA Esports
Rubick
weebian · 4 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mastery · 3 games
Snapfire
weebian · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Mastery · 2 games
Marsoften banned
Mastery · 2 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Mastery · 1 game
Enigmaoften banned
Mastery · 1 game
Hoodwink
weebian · 1 game
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
697 picks · 597 bans
Disruptor
562 picks · 493 bans
Beastmaster
461 picks · 1116 bans
Doom
451 picks · 829 bans
Ember Spirit
408 picks · 1047 bans
Pangolier
387 picks · 837 bans
Enchantress
385 picks · 550 bans
Mirana
385 picks · 210 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% BAZA Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Alliance
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct66:6
BAZA Esports 24%Alliance 76%
The model gave 76% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 25:40.
Game 2prediction correct26:31
BAZA Esports 24%Alliance 76%
The model gave 76% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 29:12.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 76%
Series resultAlliance 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2