Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 2:0series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Alliance.LATAMloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Alliance.LATAM
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
797 picks · 562 bans
Tiny
571 picks · 399 bans
Treant Protector
519 picks · 552 bans
Tusk
506 picks · 414 bans
Nature's Prophet
463 picks · 752 bans
Death Prophet
421 picks · 861 bans
Snapfire
417 picks · 298 bans
Ember Spirit
363 picks · 872 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 37%
Hero pool strength50% beastcoast
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total81% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed52:16
beastcoast 81%Alliance.LATAM 19%
The model gave 81% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Alliance.LATAM in 41:11.
Game 2prediction missed8:42
beastcoast 81%Alliance.LATAM 19%
The model gave 81% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Alliance.LATAM in 27:31.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 81%
Series resultbeastcoast 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2