BetBoom Dacha Belgrade 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastloss 1:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Apex Genesiswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Apex Genesis
Phoenixoften banned
YamSun · 11 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Speeed · 9 games
Rubick
Bignum · 9 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Sammyboy · 7 games
Crystal Maidensignature
YamSun · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
W1sh- · 7 games
Pangolieroften banned
W1sh- · 7 games
Tinyoften banned
W1sh- · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
355 picks · 345 bans
Hoodwink
352 picks · 401 bans
Jakiro
348 picks · 258 bans
Pangolier
322 picks · 504 bans
Snapfire
295 picks · 264 bans
Sven
292 picks · 305 bans
Windranger
281 picks · 388 bans
Dragon Knight
277 picks · 458 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 67%
Hero pool strength52% Apex Genesis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:16
beastcoast 54%Apex Genesis 46%
The model gave 54% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Apex Genesis in 33:19.
Game 2prediction missed22:33
beastcoast 54%Apex Genesis 46%
The model gave 54% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Apex Genesis in 42:07.
Game 3prediction missed8:23
beastcoast 54%Apex Genesis 46%
The model gave 54% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Apex Genesis in 24:18.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 54%
Series resultApex Genesis 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3