PGL Wallachia 2024 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 2:1series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 2:1
AVULUSloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
AVULUS
Batridersignature
Ekki · 21 game
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 18 games
Sniperoften banned
Ekki · 17 games
Pangoliersignature
Xibbe · 16 games
Tusksignature
SoNNeikO · 16 games
Windrangersignature
Smiling Knight · 16 games
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 15 games
Phoenixsignature
SoNNeikO · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
340 picks · 294 bans
Pangolier
333 picks · 439 bans
Jakiro
325 picks · 252 bans
Enchantress
318 picks · 539 bans
Rubick
293 picks · 276 bans
Sand King
292 picks · 800 bans
Dragon Knight
291 picks · 471 bans
Windranger
291 picks · 409 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 68%
Hero pool strength62% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total67% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:13
beastcoast 33%AVULUS 67%
The model gave 67% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 40:35.
Game 2prediction correct39:20
beastcoast 33%AVULUS 67%
The model gave 67% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 44:24.
Game 3prediction correct33:9
beastcoast 33%AVULUS 67%
The model gave 67% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 32:25.
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 67%
Series resultbeastcoast 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3