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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
beastcoastloss 1:3
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 1:3
BOOM Esportswin 3:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

beastcoast

No games played over 6 months.

BOOM Esports

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Panda · 14 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 13 games
54%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
ILICH- · 12 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ILICH- · 11 games
64%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 10 games
30%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Panda · 10 games
60%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
ILICH- · 10 games
40%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Pakazs · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
465 picks · 748 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
435 picks · 695 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
430 picks · 345 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
423 picks · 550 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
421 picks · 896 bans
56%
Lion
Lion
412 picks · 357 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
398 picks · 177 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
390 picks · 194 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 68%
Hero pool strength52% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total66% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:26
beastcoast 34%BOOM Esports 66%
The model gave 66% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 42:54.
Game 2prediction correct40:24
beastcoast 34%BOOM Esports 66%
The model gave 66% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 41:58.
Game 3prediction correct10:31
beastcoast 34%BOOM Esports 66%
The model gave 66% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 36:53.
Game 4prediction correct32:25
beastcoast 34%BOOM Esports 66%
The model gave 66% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 47:05.
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 66%
Series resultBOOM Esports 1:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game4 of 4