1win Series Dota 2 Summer · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastloss 0:2series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Entitywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
400 picks · 623 bans
Gyrocopter
347 picks · 369 bans
Crystal Maiden
339 picks · 129 bans
Centaur Warrunner
336 picks · 440 bans
Dark Willow
321 picks · 353 bans
Rubick
312 picks · 161 bans
Clockwerk
311 picks · 417 bans
Dragon Knight
309 picks · 550 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 71%
Hero pool strength50% beastcoast
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total82% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:19
beastcoast 18%Entity 82%
The model gave 82% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 43:06.
Game 2prediction correct46:18
beastcoast 18%Entity 82%
The model gave 82% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 33:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 82%
Series resultEntity 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2