Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 2:1series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Evil Geniusesloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Evil Geniuses
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 16 games
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 14 games
Rubicksignature
Matthew · 13 games
Snapfire
Matthew · 13 games
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 13 games
Undyingsignature
Panda · 13 games
Silencersignature
Panda · 12 games
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
864 picks · 605 bans
Tiny
618 picks · 429 bans
Treant Protector
531 picks · 544 bans
Tusk
524 picks · 430 bans
Nature's Prophet
518 picks · 831 bans
Snapfire
462 picks · 322 bans
Death Prophet
460 picks · 960 bans
Clockwerk
416 picks · 300 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 66%
Hero pool strength61% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total62% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:40
beastcoast 38%Evil Geniuses 62%
The model gave 62% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 38:37.
Game 2prediction correct17:36
beastcoast 38%Evil Geniuses 62%
The model gave 62% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 34:41.
Game 3prediction correct35:48
beastcoast 38%Evil Geniuses 62%
The model gave 62% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 50:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 62%
Series resultbeastcoast 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3