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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastloss 0:2
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

beastcoast

No games played over 6 months.

Evil Geniuses

Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 28 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 26 games
65%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 24 games
71%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 23 games
70%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 22 games
64%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 21 game
71%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Chris Luck · 20 games
60%
Riki
Rikisignature
Matthew · 20 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
713 picks · 613 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
593 picks · 517 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
494 picks · 1225 bans
59%
Doom
Doom
492 picks · 948 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
438 picks · 1097 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
428 picks · 884 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
414 picks · 219 bans
59%
Enchantress
Enchantress
410 picks · 585 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 54%
Hero pool strength58% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head5 – 1
Model total68% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:32
beastcoast 32%Evil Geniuses 68%
The model gave 68% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 32:49.
Game 2prediction correct31:42
beastcoast 32%Evil Geniuses 68%
The model gave 68% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 43:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 68%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2