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ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 3:2
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 3:2
Heroicloss 2:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

beastcoast

No games played over 6 months.

Heroic

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
KJ · 28 games
64%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Scofield · 26 games
65%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Scofield · 20 games
70%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
4nalog · 19 games
68%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Scofield · 19 games
58%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
KJ · 17 games
65%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
K1 · 15 games
73%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Parker · 15 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
475 picks · 649 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
407 picks · 454 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
350 picks · 513 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
347 picks · 432 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
318 picks · 171 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
317 picks · 639 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
313 picks · 386 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
287 picks · 300 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 52%
Hero pool strength60% Heroic
Head-to-head1 – 5
Model total66% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:26
beastcoast 34%Heroic 66%
The model gave 66% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 40:16.
Game 2prediction correct24:24
beastcoast 34%Heroic 66%
The model gave 66% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 41:45.
Game 3prediction correct9:24
beastcoast 34%Heroic 66%
The model gave 66% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 29:25.
Game 4prediction correct33:25
beastcoast 34%Heroic 66%
The model gave 66% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 41:54.
Game 5prediction correct22:44
beastcoast 34%Heroic 66%
The model gave 66% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 50:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 66%
Series resultbeastcoast 3:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game5 of 5