Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Южная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 2:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hokoriloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
434 picks · 952 bans
Void Spirit
410 picks · 582 bans
Death Prophet
362 picks · 670 bans
Mars
334 picks · 587 bans
Earth Spirit
307 picks · 277 bans
Tusk
270 picks · 179 bans
Phoenix
260 picks · 379 bans
Grimstroke
255 picks · 221 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 75%
Hero pool strength50% beastcoast
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed51:37
beastcoast 59%Hokori 41%
The model gave 59% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Hokori in 53:21.
Game 2prediction missed39:21
beastcoast 59%Hokori 41%
The model gave 59% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Hokori in 33:46.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 59%
Series resultbeastcoast 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2