ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 2:0series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hokoriloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Hokori
Medusaoften banned
Lumière · 2 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Vitaly · 2 games
Batrider
Genek · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 1 game
Hoodwink
Genek · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
Lumière · 1 game
Muerta
Genek · 1 game
Ogre Magi
Gardick · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
448 picks · 592 bans
Clockwerk
383 picks · 405 bans
Pangolier
332 picks · 471 bans
Luna
328 picks · 398 bans
Enchantress
308 picks · 595 bans
Dark Willow
294 picks · 158 bans
Dragon Knight
287 picks · 339 bans
Sand King
268 picks · 787 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 67%
Hero pool strength58% Hokori
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:41
beastcoast 64%Hokori 36%
The model gave 64% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Hokori in 46:10.
Game 2prediction missed28:21
beastcoast 64%Hokori 36%
The model gave 64% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Hokori in 42:55.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 64%
Series resultbeastcoast 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2