Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 2:0series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Infamous.Rloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Infamous.R
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
840 picks · 589 bans
Tiny
604 picks · 419 bans
Treant Protector
522 picks · 540 bans
Tusk
515 picks · 423 bans
Nature's Prophet
499 picks · 806 bans
Death Prophet
447 picks · 927 bans
Snapfire
442 picks · 308 bans
Clockwerk
396 picks · 289 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% beastcoast
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total92% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:31
beastcoast 92%Infamous.R 8%
The model gave 92% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Infamous.R in 39:34.
Game 2prediction missed35:29
beastcoast 92%Infamous.R 8%
The model gave 92% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Infamous.R in 43:26.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 92%
Series resultbeastcoast 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2