Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 2:0series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Infinity Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Infinity Esports
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mr.Jeans · 6 games
Enchantressoften banned
Nuages · 6 games
Morphlingsignature
mini-` · 6 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Hyko · 5 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Nuages · 5 games
Lion
Jupiter · 4 games
Mirana
Jupiter · 4 games
Snapfire
Jupiter · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
361 picks · 342 bans
Tusk
353 picks · 337 bans
Mirana
257 picks · 248 bans
Rubick
234 picks · 189 bans
Crystal Maiden
224 picks · 149 bans
Pangolier
205 picks · 536 bans
Snapfire
194 picks · 114 bans
Silencer
193 picks · 219 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 54%
Hero pool strength53% Infinity Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total75% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed46:22
beastcoast 75%Infinity Esports 25%
The model gave 75% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 46:38.
Game 2prediction missed30:18
beastcoast 75%Infinity Esports 25%
The model gave 75% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 36:20.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 75%
Series resultbeastcoast 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2