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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 2:1
series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Infinity Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

beastcoast

No games played over 6 months.

Infinity Esports

Rubick
Rubick
Genek · 12 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Leostyle · 10 games
20%
Tusk
Tusk
Genek · 10 games
30%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Genek · 9 games
44%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Leostyle · 8 games
25%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Prada · 7 games
43%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Oscar · 7 games
43%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Prada · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
790 picks · 533 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
561 picks · 400 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
533 picks · 438 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
530 picks · 575 bans
56%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
431 picks · 708 bans
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
401 picks · 786 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
401 picks · 295 bans
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
368 picks · 828 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 27%
Hero pool strength55% beastcoast
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total87% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:12
beastcoast 87%Infinity Esports 13%
The model gave 87% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 32:02.
Game 2prediction missed43:23
beastcoast 87%Infinity Esports 13%
The model gave 87% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 36:34.
Game 3prediction missed20:32
beastcoast 87%Infinity Esports 13%
The model gave 87% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 32:31.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 87%
Series resultbeastcoast 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3