Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 2:0series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Infinity Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Infinity Esports
Rubick
Kiri · 17 games
Snapfire
Kiri · 15 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Frank · 11 games
Tiny
Kiri · 10 games
Tusk
Genek · 10 games
Crystal Maiden
Prada · 9 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Frank · 9 games
Disruptor
Prada · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
736 picks · 613 bans
Disruptor
550 picks · 480 bans
Beastmaster
424 picks · 1028 bans
Ember Spirit
401 picks · 979 bans
Doom
399 picks · 663 bans
Tiny
398 picks · 374 bans
Undying
392 picks · 610 bans
Mirana
379 picks · 206 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 38%
Hero pool strength54% beastcoast
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total86% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:26
beastcoast 86%Infinity Esports 14%
The model gave 86% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 44:05.
Game 2prediction missed20:17
beastcoast 86%Infinity Esports 14%
The model gave 86% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 38:03.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 86%
Series resultbeastcoast 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2