Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 2:0series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Keyd Starsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Keyd Stars
Snapfiresignature
KJ · 12 games
Pucksignature
Sooths · 11 games
Medusasignature
hFn · 10 games
Visagesignature
Tavo · 10 games
Tinysignature
Kingrd · 9 games
Clockwerk
Kingrd · 8 games
Marcisignature
Kingrd · 8 games
Tusksignature
Kingrd · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
344 picks · 336 bans
Tusk
331 picks · 328 bans
Mirana
225 picks · 237 bans
Crystal Maiden
219 picks · 144 bans
Leshrac
200 picks · 415 bans
Pangolier
199 picks · 535 bans
Rubick
197 picks · 162 bans
Snapfire
186 picks · 109 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 50%
Hero pool strength60% Keyd Stars
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total90% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
beastcoast 90%Keyd Stars 10%
The model gave 90% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast.
Game 2prediction missed19:29
beastcoast 90%Keyd Stars 10%
The model gave 90% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Keyd Stars in 24:54.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 90%
Series resultbeastcoast 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2