Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 2:0series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Lavaloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Lava
Grimstroke
Genek · 6 games
Alchemistoften banned
Lumière · 4 games
Vengeful Spirit
Gardick · 4 games
Morphlingoften banned
Lumière · 3 games
Undyingoften banned
Gardick · 3 games
Zeusoften banned
Genek · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
Genek · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Frank · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
483 picks · 221 bans
Tiny
440 picks · 690 bans
Centaur Warrunner
427 picks · 609 bans
Gyrocopter
420 picks · 384 bans
Batrider
413 picks · 746 bans
Rubick
384 picks · 161 bans
Pangolier
354 picks · 751 bans
Dragon Knight
347 picks · 1029 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 44%
Hero pool strength57% beastcoast
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total75% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:13
beastcoast 75%Lava 25%
The model gave 75% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Lava in 38:21.
Game 2prediction missed12:27
beastcoast 75%Lava 25%
The model gave 75% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Lava in 28:45.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 75%
Series resultbeastcoast 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2