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DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastloss 0:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Looking for Orgwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

beastcoast

No games played over 6 months.

Looking for Org

Snapfire
Snapfire
Matthew · 10 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 9 games
33%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Mnz · 7 games
43%
Luna
Lunasignature
Mnz · 7 games
71%
Omniknight
Omniknightoften banned
Yadomi · 7 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Yadomi · 6 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
DarkMago · 5 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Matthew · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
346 picks · 257 bans
45%
Snapfire
Snapfire
346 picks · 282 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
333 picks · 443 bans
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
315 picks · 358 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
311 picks · 307 bans
50%
Windranger
Windranger
309 picks · 437 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
301 picks · 486 bans
46%
Enchantress
Enchantress
301 picks · 520 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 62%
Hero pool strength55% Looking for Org
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total63% Looking for Org
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:39
beastcoast 37%Looking for Org 63%
The model gave 63% on Looking for Org — the game was taken by Looking for Org in 35:34.
Game 2prediction correct33:8
beastcoast 37%Looking for Org 63%
The model gave 63% on Looking for Org — the game was taken by Looking for Org in 26:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteLooking for Org · 63%
Series resultLooking for Org 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2