Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Южная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastloss 0:2series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 0:2
NoPing VPNwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
NoPing VPN
Earth Spirit
Michael · 7 games
Medusaoften banned
hFn · 5 games
Timbersawoften banned
Oscar · 5 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Matthew · 4 games
Oracleoften banned
Panda · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
DarkMago · 3 games
Enchantress
Accel · 3 games
Grimstroke
Accel · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
283 picks · 563 bans
Void Spirit
252 picks · 320 bans
Mars
221 picks · 403 bans
Earth Spirit
210 picks · 165 bans
Keeper of the Light
183 picks · 333 bans
Nyx Assassin
182 picks · 566 bans
Phoenix
178 picks · 206 bans
Wraith King
177 picks · 231 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)78% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% NoPing VPN
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:30
beastcoast 71%NoPing VPN 29%
The model gave 71% on beastcoast — the game was taken by NoPing VPN in 24:14.
Game 2prediction missed29:19
beastcoast 71%NoPing VPN 29%
The model gave 71% on beastcoast — the game was taken by NoPing VPN in 31:04.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 71%
Series resultNoPing VPN 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2