DreamLeague Season 19 · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
OG
Rubick
Taiga · 27 games
Invokersignature
bzm · 15 games
Disruptorsignature
Chuvash · 11 games
Tiny
Taiga · 11 games
Dark Willowsignature
Taiga · 10 games
Death Prophetoften banned
DM · 10 games
Doomsignature
DM · 10 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
bzm · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
1004 picks · 682 bans
Tiny
655 picks · 479 bans
Nature's Prophet
604 picks · 957 bans
Tusk
554 picks · 433 bans
Snapfire
524 picks · 360 bans
Death Prophet
515 picks · 1176 bans
Disruptor
514 picks · 370 bans
Clockwerk
498 picks · 369 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 43%
Hero pool strength53% OG
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total55% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:38
beastcoast 55%OG 45%
The model gave 55% on beastcoast — the game was taken by OG in 37:18.
Game 2prediction missed9:31
beastcoast 55%OG 45%
The model gave 55% on beastcoast — the game was taken by OG in 30:23.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 55%
Series resultbeastcoast 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2