Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
beastcoastloss 0:2series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Secretwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Team Secret
Magnusoften banned
Armel · 13 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 13 games
Pugnaoften banned
yamich · 12 games
Techiesoften banned
yamich · 11 games
Void Spirit
Armel · 10 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Armel · 9 games
Pangolieroften banned
Armel · 9 games
Windrangeroften banned
Crystallis · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
640 picks · 690 bans
Rubick
473 picks · 323 bans
Doom
459 picks · 987 bans
Ember Spirit
393 picks · 846 bans
Void Spirit
391 picks · 353 bans
Batrider
390 picks · 933 bans
Beastmaster
378 picks · 1003 bans
Pugna
378 picks · 448 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 27%
Hero pool strength52% beastcoast
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total62% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:19
beastcoast 62%Team Secret 38%
The model gave 62% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Team Secret in 40:42.
Game 2prediction missed50:19
beastcoast 62%Team Secret 38%
The model gave 62% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Team Secret in 39:42.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 62%
Series resultTeam Secret 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2