Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Южная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 2:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Thunder Awakenloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Thunder Awaken
Earthshaker
MoOz · 2 games
Phoenixoften banned
Mjz · 2 games
Timbersawoften banned
Frank · 2 games
Windrangeroften banned
MoOz · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Frank · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
Leostyle · 1 game
Drow Rangeroften banned
Mnz · 1 game
Enchantress
Mjz · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
184 picks · 412 bans
Mars
171 picks · 314 bans
Earth Spirit
161 picks · 129 bans
Void Spirit
158 picks · 227 bans
Phoenix
136 picks · 154 bans
Keeper of the Light
126 picks · 214 bans
Nyx Assassin
122 picks · 411 bans
Rubick
119 picks · 64 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 57%
Hero pool strength54% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:34
beastcoast 59%Thunder Awaken 41%
The model gave 59% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 33:33.
Game 2prediction missed37:15
beastcoast 59%Thunder Awaken 41%
The model gave 59% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 32:02.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 59%
Series resultbeastcoast 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2