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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 2:0
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Thunder Awakenloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

beastcoast

No games played over 6 months.

Thunder Awaken

Snapfire
Snapfire
Matthew · 20 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 18 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 15 games
53%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 15 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Sacred · 15 games
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Sacred · 13 games
69%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Matthew · 13 games
62%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 12 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
387 picks · 377 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
345 picks · 351 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
320 picks · 226 bans
57%
Mirana
Mirana
280 picks · 282 bans
53%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
206 picks · 148 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
206 picks · 110 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
199 picks · 259 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
190 picks · 516 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)78% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total70% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:6
beastcoast 70%Thunder Awaken 30%
The model gave 70% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 25:06.
Game 2prediction missed35:46
beastcoast 70%Thunder Awaken 30%
The model gave 70% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 1:03:30.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 70%
Series resultbeastcoast 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2