BetBoom Dacha · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastloss 0:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TSMwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
TSM
Rubick
Ari · 43 games
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 30 games
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 17 games
Terrorbladesignature
Timado · 17 games
Disruptor
Whitemon · 14 games
Lycanoften banned
kasane · 14 games
Pangolieroften banned
bryle- · 14 games
Broodmotheroften banned
kasane · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
392 picks · 193 bans
Ember Spirit
310 picks · 448 bans
Undying
270 picks · 451 bans
Techies
266 picks · 217 bans
Batrider
252 picks · 410 bans
Morphling
249 picks · 464 bans
Storm Spirit
244 picks · 414 bans
Pangolier
223 picks · 451 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)34% vs 31%
Hero pool strength51% TSM
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total55% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:8
beastcoast 55%TSM 45%
The model gave 55% on beastcoast — the game was taken by TSM in 23:30.
Game 2prediction missed10:34
beastcoast 55%TSM 45%
The model gave 55% on beastcoast — the game was taken by TSM in 26:02.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 55%
Series resultTSM 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2