ESL One Stockholm Dota Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
beastcoastloss 0:2series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Tundra Esports
Doomsignature
33 · 20 games
Banesignature
Fata · 18 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Skiter · 18 games
Iosignature
Sneyking · 18 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Skiter · 17 games
Weaversignature
Sneyking · 16 games
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 15 games
Hoodwinksignature
Saksa · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
463 picks · 624 bans
Bane
449 picks · 288 bans
Tiny
432 picks · 487 bans
Sand King
396 picks · 525 bans
Death Prophet
359 picks · 782 bans
Ember Spirit
346 picks · 544 bans
Storm Spirit
339 picks · 533 bans
Pangolier
326 picks · 497 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 65%
Hero pool strength61% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total73% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct56:26
beastcoast 27%Tundra Esports 73%
The model gave 73% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 51:12.
Game 2prediction correct20:45
beastcoast 27%Tundra Esports 73%
The model gave 73% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 35:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 73%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2