ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
beastcoastloss 0:2series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Tundra Esports
Mirana
Sneyking · 32 games
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 31 game
Doomsignature
33 · 24 games
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 23 games
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 22 games
Undyingsignature
Sneyking · 21 game
Dragon Knightsignature
Nine · 20 games
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
1010 picks · 711 bans
Tiny
627 picks · 460 bans
Disruptor
586 picks · 433 bans
Nature's Prophet
556 picks · 900 bans
Tusk
522 picks · 391 bans
Snapfire
515 picks · 360 bans
Death Prophet
503 picks · 1202 bans
Ember Spirit
502 picks · 1102 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 58%
Hero pool strength58% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total77% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:40
beastcoast 23%Tundra Esports 77%
The model gave 77% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 37:59.
Game 2prediction correct36:13
beastcoast 23%Tundra Esports 77%
The model gave 77% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 28:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 77%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2