PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 2:1series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Virtus.proloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Virtus.pro
Marcisignature
yamich · 20 games
Tinysignature
yamich · 18 games
Templar Assassinsignature
gpK~ · 16 games
Beastmastersignature
DM · 15 games
Dazzlesignature
Xakoda · 14 games
Dragon Knightsignature
DM · 14 games
Shadow Shaman
yamich · 14 games
Banesignature
Xakoda · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
696 picks · 503 bans
Puck
501 picks · 980 bans
Dawnbreaker
408 picks · 523 bans
Snapfire
385 picks · 200 bans
Marci
380 picks · 689 bans
Winter Wyvern
325 picks · 312 bans
Mars
294 picks · 498 bans
Monkey King
294 picks · 625 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 68%
Hero pool strength61% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:19
beastcoast 39%Virtus.pro 61%
The model gave 61% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 33:36.
Game 2prediction correct11:18
beastcoast 39%Virtus.pro 61%
The model gave 61% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 28:47.
Game 3prediction correct12:22
beastcoast 39%Virtus.pro 61%
The model gave 61% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 29:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 61%
Series resultbeastcoast 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3