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The Bali Major 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
BETBOOM TEAMloss 1:2
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Azure Raywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BETBOOM TEAM

Doom
Doomsignature
Pure~ · 32 games
69%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Save- · 29 games
69%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Save- · 27 games
59%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Nightfall · 26 games
73%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Save- · 26 games
62%
Techies
Techiessignature
Save- · 23 games
70%
Tiny
Tiny
gpK~ · 23 games
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 22 games
68%

Azure Ray

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
BEYOND · 12 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Somnus · 12 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
天命 · 10 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
fy · 10 games
80%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
zzq · 9 games
78%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
lou · 9 games
78%
Riki
Rikisignature
天命 · 9 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
天命 · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
669 picks · 700 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
630 picks · 441 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
566 picks · 1119 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
481 picks · 1008 bans
49%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
472 picks · 1186 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
450 picks · 408 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
441 picks · 711 bans
48%
Batrider
Batrider
418 picks · 1138 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 48%
Hero pool strength50% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:30
BETBOOM TEAM 65%Azure Ray 35%
The model gave 65% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 35:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingNightfall
44% · 201 game53% · 142 games
Naga Sirenlou
Naga Siren
Lina
LinagpK~
51% · 111 games61% · 26 games
Outworld DestroyerSomnus
Outworld Destroyer
Underlord
UnderlordResolut1on
49% · 76 games52% · 32 games
BrewmasterChalice
Brewmaster
Enchantress
EnchantressSave-
39% · 202 games55% · 270 games
Batriderfy
Batrider
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerTORONTOTOKYO
50% · 102 games51% · 222 games
Crystal Maiden天命
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct40:5
BETBOOM TEAM 65%Azure Ray 35%
The model gave 65% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 33:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautNightfall
43% · 64 games50% · 191 game
DoomChalice
Doom
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritgpK~
53% · 183 games51% · 83 games
Slarklou
Slark
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderResolut1on
46% · 70 games50% · 76 games
LeshracSomnus
Leshrac
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightSave-
53% · 192 games50% · 163 games
Silencer天命
Silencer
Lich
LichTORONTOTOKYO
47% · 117 games55% · 113 games
Pugnafy
Pugna
Game 3prediction missed28:36
BETBOOM TEAM 67%Azure Ray 33%
The model gave 67% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 52:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingNightfall
47% · 213 games44% · 167 games
Bloodseekerlou
Bloodseeker
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassingpK~
53% · 206 games53% · 243 games
PuckSomnus
Puck
Broodmother
BroodmotherResolut1on
56% · 169 games48% · 181 game
EnigmaChalice
Enigma
Techies
TechiesSave-
55% · 262 games47% · 473 games
Tinyfy
Tiny
Clockwerk
ClockwerkTORONTOTOKYO
50% · 397 games49% · 183 games
Pugna天命
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 77%
Series resultAzure Ray 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3