FISSURE Universe: Episode 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
BETBOOM TEAMloss 0:2series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BOOM Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BETBOOM TEAM
Muertasignature
Save- · 34 games
Tusk
Kataomi · 25 games
Beastmastersignature
MieRo · 24 games
Batridersignature
Save- · 23 games
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 22 games
Magnussignature
MieRo · 21 game
Lichsignature
Kataomi · 19 games
Dawnbreakersignature
MieRo · 18 games
BOOM Esports
Lionsignature
Tims · 26 games
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 24 games
Batrideroften banned
Jaunuel · 23 games
Earthshakeroften banned
Mac · 23 games
Clockwerksignature
Jaunuel · 21 game
Magnusoften banned
Fbz · 20 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Mac · 17 games
Doomsignature
Fbz · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
496 picks · 691 bans
Phoenix
451 picks · 711 bans
Clockwerk
430 picks · 422 bans
Muerta
419 picks · 326 bans
Magnus
385 picks · 961 bans
Batrider
381 picks · 435 bans
Bristleback
381 picks · 886 bans
Pangolier
367 picks · 510 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total87% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:30
BETBOOM TEAM 71%BOOM Esports 29%
The model gave 71% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 51:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyPure~
GyrocopterJaCkky
WindrangergpK~
SlardarArmel
AxeMieRo
TidehunterJabz
WarlockKataomi
Ancient ApparitionJaunuel
RingmasterSave-
MiranaTims
Game 2prediction missed18:43
BETBOOM TEAM 72%BOOM Esports 28%
The model gave 72% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 38:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterPure~
BristlebackJaCkky
SnipergpK~
PuckArmel
TinkerKataomi
MarsJabz
BatriderMieRo
Bounty HunterTims
TuskSave-
Ancient ApparitionJaunuel
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 87%
Series resultBOOM Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2