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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
BETBOOM TEAMwin 2:1
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BETBOOM TEAM

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Nightfall · 19 games
63%
Rubick
Rubick
Save- · 19 games
58%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
gpK~ · 17 games
59%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Save- · 15 games
73%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Save- · 14 games
64%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 13 games
77%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
gpK~ · 13 games
69%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 13 games
62%

Nemiga Gaming

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 22 games
64%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Hellscream · 19 games
63%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 14 games
57%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Malr1ne · 13 games
46%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Hellscream · 13 games
77%
Techies
Techies
Hellscream · 13 games
54%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
so bad · 13 games
38%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
so bad · 12 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
713 picks · 606 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
582 picks · 506 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
484 picks · 1194 bans
59%
Doom
Doom
481 picks · 906 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
429 picks · 1086 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
413 picks · 872 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
406 picks · 218 bans
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
398 picks · 574 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 67%
Hero pool strength52% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total73% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:21
BETBOOM TEAM 62%Nemiga Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 30:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
MagnusPure~
41% · 99 games49% · 53 games
Juggernautv1olent-
Juggernaut
Ursa
UrsaNightfall
54% · 128 games52% · 162 games
TimbersawMalr1ne
Timbersaw
Queen of Pain
Queen of PaingpK~
49% · 135 games53% · 93 games
TidehunterCorrupted
Tidehunter
Enchantress
EnchantressSave-
46% · 157 games56% · 258 games
BatriderHellscream
Batrider
Silencer
SilencerTORONTOTOKYO
46% · 154 games52% · 107 games
Lichso bad
Lich
Game 2prediction correct22:10
BETBOOM TEAM 62%Nemiga Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 34:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordNightfall
50% · 44 games51% · 88 games
Juggernautv1olent-
Juggernaut
Magnus
MagnusPure~
41% · 164 games53% · 315 games
PangolierMalr1ne
Pangolier
Tiny
TinygpK~
50% · 416 games51% · 214 games
BatriderCorrupted
Batrider
Lich
LichTORONTOTOKYO
56% · 89 games45% · 83 games
Spirit BreakerHellscream
Spirit Breaker
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightSave-
45% · 152 games58% · 165 games
Techiesso bad
Techies
Game 3prediction correct20:9
BETBOOM TEAM 62%Nemiga Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 25:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeNightfall
48% · 101 game57% · 33 games
AxeCorrupted
Axe
Magnus
MagnusPure~
46% · 108 games44% · 95 games
Windrangerv1olent-
Windranger
Pangolier
PangoliergpK~
53% · 167 games52% · 195 games
Void SpiritMalr1ne
Void Spirit
Enchantress
EnchantressSave-
48% · 119 games45% · 47 games
ClinkzHellscream
Clinkz
Disruptor
DisruptorTORONTOTOKYO
51% · 90 games57% · 215 games
Techiesso bad
Techies
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 73%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3